International Conference on Modelling and Forecasting of Socio-Economic Phenomena

	Title page	1
	Contents	6
	Preface	11
Nataliia Cherkas, Myroslava Chekh	Assessing the Countries’ Competitiveness Based on Value Added Concept	12
Anna Denkowska	Network analysis of the EU insurance sector: a tail dependence-based MST in modelling systemic risk	21
Krzysztof Drachal, Justyna Góral, Włodzimierz Rembisz	Analysis of global food prices with new Bayesian model combination schemes	32
Katarzyna Frodyma	The analysis of the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth using the Environmental Kuznets Curve	42
Wioletta Grzenda	Prediction of the probability of employment termination by people over the age of 50 using parametric survival models	52
Grzegorz Kończak, Karsten Lübke	Interactive Data Analysis of OECD – Data: Introduction to Permutation Tests	61
Jadwiga Kostrzewska, Maciej Kostrzewski	Forecasting upward and downward jumps in Nord Pool electricity prices by means of the generalised ordered logistic regression	69
Łukasz Kwiatkowski	Bayesian VEC models with Markov-switching heteroscedasticity in forecasting macroeconomic time series	78
Paweł Lula, Monika Hamerska	Analysis of patterns of cooperation in the preparation of scientific publications	88
Marta Małecka	Resampling vs. Parameter Correction: Ways of Dealing with Parameter Uncertainty in Testing VaR	97
Janusz Niezgoda	The impact of changes in sample allocation on distributions of examined sample variables	107
Anatoliy Pilyavskyy, Anna Maryniak, Yuliia Bulhakova	ISM method in research on success factors of Polish and Ukrainian supply chains	116
Michał Rubaszek, Marek Kwas	A note on interactions between European and US natural gas prices	125
Victor Shevchukk	Exchange-rate pass-through in Ukraine	135
Agata Sielska, Ewelina Nojszewska	Efficiency of Polish county hospitals	145
Danuta Strahl	Sectoral dimension of enterprise innovation in the system of Polish provinces in 2008-2017	155
Katarzyna Suszyńska, Wojciech Kisiała	Tenure arrangements in the EU countries: the trade-off between ownership and rental housing	165
Grażyna Trzpiot	Impact of demographic dividend for longevity economy – the case of selected European countries	175
Wojciech Zieliński	A New Confidence Interval for the Odds Ratio: an Application to the Analysis of the Risk of Survival of an Enterprise	185

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