International Conference on Modelling and Forecasting of Socio-Economic Phenomena

	Title page	1
	Contents	6
	Preface	8
Jan Acedański	Finite sample properties of the Conditional Predictive Ability test	9
Jacek Białek	Application of the original price index formula in the CPI commodity substitution bias measurement	17
Justyna Brzezińska	Analysis of emigration in Poland with the use log-linear models	25
Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup	On the particular construction of the SMC sampling method for Bayesian filtering	33
Natalia Cherkas	Structural shifts in the exports and industrial production effects in Ukraine	41
Marek A. Dąbrowski, Sławomir Śmiech, Monika Papież	The global financial crisis and monetary policy responses in emerging market economies	49
Ewa Drabik	The modeling of selected economic phenomena by means of positional game	57
Eleonora Fendeková, Michal Fendek	Analysis of cartel equilibrium model and guarantee the conditions of economic competition	65
Joanna Górna, Karolina Górna, Elżbieta Szulc	A ß-convergence analysis of European regions. Some re-specifications of the traditional model	73
Kamil Łyko	Distribution analysis of the losses due to credit risk	82
Marta Małecka	Statistical properties of duration-based VaR backtesting procedures in finite sample setting	91
Viera Pacáková, Pavla Jindrová, Kateřina Seinerová	Mortality models of insured population in the Slovak Republic	99
Monika Papież	Convergence of energy security level in the EU member countries	107
Dorota Pekasiewicz	Bayesian statistical tests for parameters of structural changes model with Bernoulli variable	115
Michał Bernard Pietrzak, Justyna Wilk, Marcin Siekaniec	The impact of metropolitan areas on internal migrations in Poland. The case of southern regions	124
Agnieszka Przybylska-Mazur	Selected methods of choice of the optimal monetary policy transmission horizon	133
Marcin Salamaga	An application of the harmonic oscillator mechanism in the verification of the theory of economic growth by Dunning based on the examples of selected countries of Central and Eastern Europe	141
Victor Shevchuk	Monetary model of exchange rate determination: evidence from the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland	149
Sławomir Śmiech	Some aspects of energy security in the EU member countries in the period 2000-2010	157
Tatiana Šoltésová, Erik Šoltés	Embedded value as the value reporting tool of the life insurance companies	165
Małgorzata Stec	Determinants of socio-economic development of Podkarpackie voivodships	173
Anna Szymańska	The use of asymmetric loss function for estimating premium rates in motor insurance	181
Paweł Ulman, Agnieszka Wałęga	Hired labour versus self-employment. Comparison of income distribution	190
Alicja Wolny-Dominiak, Joanna Studnik	Estimation of claim counts quantiles	198
Alicja Wolny-Dominiak, Gregory E. Kersten, Tomasz Wachowicz	The analysis of dyadic relationships in the negotiation process	205

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